Rain, Cooler Weather Contradicts Climate Scientists Dire Global Warming Australia Predictions
Weather refuses to cooperate with Climate Scientists’ Dire Global Warming Prognosis for Australia
What Climate Scientists May not Want the World to Learn: The Record Rains Falling in Australia, Cooler Summer Temps
Australia, poster child for Global Warming
What do climate scientists do when their computer model predictions go horribly wrong? We found one huge instance of climate scientists with computer models and the MSM’s global warming gloom and doom prediction scenario that isn’t working out quite the way the scientists or the MSM predicted: Australia was the “harbinger” of global warming to come, with a worsening of the record drought, heatwaves, and brushfires.
On April 2, 2009, the LA Times published What will global warming look like? Scientists point to Australia, a report from The Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, on suicide and depression related to the extensive drought that ravaged the countryside. The report focused on the claims of climate scientists who pointed to Australia’s record setting heat waves, drought, and brushfires as a “harbinger” of things to come relating to man-caused global warming:
Climate scientists say Australia — beset by prolonged drought and deadly bush fires in the south, monsoon flooding and mosquito-borne fevers in the north, widespread wildlife decline, economic collapse in agriculture and killer heat waves — epitomizes the “accelerated climate crisis” that global warming models have forecast.
With few skeptics among them, Australians appear to be coming to an awakening: Adapt to a rapidly shifting climate, and soon. Scientists here warn that the experience of this island continent is an early cautionary tale for the rest of the world.
And,
“Australia is the harbinger of change,” said paleontologist Tim Flannery, Australia’s most vocal climate change prophet. “The problems for us are going to be greater. The cost to Australia from climate change is going to be greater than for any developed country. We are already starting to see it. It’s tearing apart the life-support system that gives us this world.”
Cited in the article were the deadly brushfires that swept the state of Victoria in February and the killer-heatwave that blistered Melbourne during the same period, and the “dust bowl” scenes in the Murray-Darling Basin:
Australia’s climate change predicament is on depressing display in the Murray-Darling Basin, where the country’s three largest rivers converge, and where Eddy runs a shrinking 100-acre orchard.
The rivers — the Murray, Darling and Murrumbidgee — flow from the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range and nourish the valleys of Australia’s fruit and grain basket, as well as a diverse system of wetlands, grasslands and eucalyptus forests.
Also cited, the “worst” drought to hit Australia “in more than a century”:
Most of the country is in the grip of the worst drought in more than a century. Every capital in Australia’s eight states and territories is operating under considerable water restrictions. In urban areas, “bucketing” has become a common practice — placing pails in showers and using the gray water on lawns or gardens. In some cities, such as Brisbane, residents drink recycled water, a process nicknamed “toilet to tap.”
Here’s our “global warming/climate scientists” prediction: The public won’t hear about the record setting rains and cool temps occurring less than nine months after the LA Times global warming doom n gloom piece.
On August 16, 2009, the Sydney Morning Herald published Study links drought with rising emissions. The $7 million South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative study “confirmed that the drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change”.
Here’s how the climate scientists reached their conclusion:
“Scientists working on the $7 million South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative said the rain had dropped away because the subtropical ridge – a band of high pressure systems that sits over the country’s south – had strengthened over the past 13 years.”
The scientists ran simulations with only the ”natural” influences on temperature, such as differing levels of solar activity using sophisticated computer climate models in the United States.
“The model results showed no intensification of the subtropical ridge and no decline in rainfall.”
When scientists added “greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone depletion, the models “mimicked” the weather pattern observed over southeastern Australia: “strengthening high pressure systems and the significant loss of rain”.
”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.
”In the minds of a lot of people the rainfall we had in the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”
A strengthening of a high pressure system due to global warming where, according to Timbal, southeastern Australia would continue see low rainfall and continued drought. The areas of concern included the area cited in the LA Times global harbinger article the Murray-Darling Basin:
Dr Timbal said that 80 per cent of the rain loss in south-east Australia could be attributed to the intensification of the subtropical ridge. The research program covers the Murray-Darling Basin, including parts of NSW, all of Victoria and parts of South Australia.
And, Melbourne’s dams:
“Melbourne’s dams get roughly a third less water than they did before the drought began in October 1996.”
Sixty days and $7 million later, the TheAge.com reported Melbourne’s water reserves overflowing after rainfall:
Some of Melbourne’s water reserves are overflowing thanks to heavy rain over the last three weeks.
Melbourne Water’s networks of dams, pumps and aqueducts have so far helped it bank close to four months’ supply for Melbourne over a three-week period, Melbourne Water manager of Water Supply John Woodland said.
The downpour has seen Melbourne’s two smallest reserves, Maroondah and O’Shannassy, fill to capacity, forcing the water authority to move water to bigger reservoirs to make room for more.
And:
“Maroondah Reservoir was at 58 per cent on grand final day and it’s now almost full,” Mr Woodland said.
“It’s likely Maroondah will spill for the first time since November 2005 if it receives much more rain, but we’ll pick up as much as possible further down the river and store it in Sugarloaf Reservoir.”
Mr Woodland said its system was designed to deal with downpours, but it had not seen anything like this for years.
On December 28, the Age reported Flood warnings in place as rivers rise:
AREAS of the state saturated by rain at the weekend will need only 40 to 50 millimetres to produce moderate to major flooding, the Bureau of Meteorology warned yesterday.
Forecasters and emergency services are keeping an eye on the Castlereagh River in particular after reports of 160-170 millimetre falls in storms around Gilgandra.
Alerts were also issued for Scone and Murrurundi in the Hunter Valley, as well as the Barwon and Darling rivers between Collarenabri and Brewarrina. Mr Campbell this morning said rainfall over night had been further north than expected, but areas in the Hunter would remain under “floodwatch” today.
Remember the La Times Murray-Darling Basin “field report”? Here’s a map:
The following map is December 28, 24-hour total rainfall totals which include flood warnings on the Darling river.
On December 27, news.com.au published Wet end to 2009 for NSW:
New South Wales is awash with heavy rainfall again today, with little to suggest it will dry out any time soon.
The trough, responsible for the festive drenching over the last day or two has continued dropping torrential rainfall. The rainfall struck Western Slopes and the Hunter in particular where 24 hour totals closed and in some cases surpassed 100mm.
Some notable falls were:
- Parkville 67mm, their best rain in five years
- Murrurundi 50mm, their best in 10 months
- Barina 52mm, highest in a year
- Gilgandra 73mm, highest in two years
The drought hit Upper Western even grabbed a load more before the trough moved east today, with Goodooga taking 58mm a four year high.
Also mentioned, the computer model prediction which was “in error”:
Cyclone Laurence, originally predicted to arrive from Western Australia in a furious burst of extreme weather, instead fizzed out into a weak trough, bringing only showers, rain and isolated thunderstorms.
”The computer model had bullseyes of heavy rainfall on it, but it turned out they were in error and those intense bullseyes did not occur. We had widespread heavy rain. It’s probably been more useful to people through the central north, rather than deluge and flooding,” Mr Webb said.
The LA Times article cited the extensive brushfires in Victoria, which, according to the climate scientists, would worsen with “time” and the “effects” of global warming. Today’s forecast for the state:
“Drizzle clearing from the east. Mostly sunny and mild elsewhere.”
Latest Fire Danger Rating Map for Victoria
According to the latest fire danger rating map forecast on December 31, none of the areas were labeled, “severe”, “extreme”, or “code red” for fire danger.
As for the current weather in Melbourne, who suffered through the devastating heatwave last February, the latest temps in the area are listed as “normal” for this time of year.
In November Melbourne experienced four days in a row with temps over 30 (C) degrees, the “the longest spell of heat in Melbourne in November since 1925″, which occurred before “man-made global warming” and 1896, when the area had six days in a row of temps over 30 (C) degrees.
Two instances of “record” heat spells recorded before man-made global warming was blamed as the culprit in 2009.
Despite the four days of high temps in November, Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Dean Stewart said the fire danger “wasn’t extreme”.
On June 1, 2009, Alice Springs reported its coldest “May Day” on record:
Alice Springs has had its coldest May day on record, with the temperature reaching just 9.6 degrees Celsius on Saturday.
After a balmy 29.6 degrees Celsius the previous Sunday, winter came two days early to the Red Centre.
Jenny Farlow from the weather bureau says Saturday was the coldest May day ever recorded in Alice Springs.
And it was only slightly warmer yesterday, reaching 10.8C.
“It was actually really interesting because the minimums were very close to the maximums,†she said.
The cooler temperatures and steady rain caused havoc for some sporting events, including the weekend’s horse racing.
On April 20, 2009, Times reporter Julie Cart, who wrote the “What will global warming look like? Scientists point to Australia” won a Pulitzer Prize with Bettina Boxall for their their series of stories on how brush fires are fought in the U.S..
We look forward to when Cart will return to Australia with a “follow-up” to her Australia is the “harbinger” of global warming to come, or whether Cart will remain mum on the weather down under of heaven sent rain, cooler or average temperatures, and a lessening of the brushfire danger.
By LBG
Image – Lindy Chamberlain, Baby Zahra
Image - Ayers Rock, Uluru
Scientists don’t point to Australia to evidence what global warming will look like, dullards do. Australia is dry just like other desert areas are dry. Outside the monsoon and hurricane belt, there are no serious rain drivers. And what rain there is is blocked by its pitiful mountains that are just tall enough, and in just the right place to hinder rainfall in the central and southern portions. With no tall mountains to trap enough moisture in the southern region to create rivers and forests inland. A happenstance of geography. studied to extrema.
One comment about the global Warmists. They want it both ways: warming will bring serious storms and droughts. These are inconsistent. Hurricanes, tropical depressions, and tropical storms are rain drivers to inland Asia, Pacifica, India/Southern Asia (an entirely different climate system), Eastern North America/Canada, Mexico and central America, Northern California/Wash, Ore.(an entirely different weather system. Hmmmm. The warmth of the tropical equatorial areas is maintained by the tropical rain effect, a warmth related phenomenon. Hmmmm again.
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Great comment, pat.
Climate scientists do want to have it both ways, a kind of a cover-their-asses by including weather “extremes”, such Katrina, which was blamed on global warming and the dire prediction the Gulf Coast would be hit by severe, monster-type hurricanes. Guess what, last summer’s hurricane season went out with whimper, which was, once more, blamed on global warming.
What’s next to be blamed? Earthquakes?
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I’m sorry, but you really should get some more factual information before you post on this topic. I am Australian and I have worked most of my life as a hydrologist working on rivers. Here are a few facts that you need to know:
1. It has been well established that Australian rivers have far more variable flows than those in most developed countries. That means there are longer dry periods punctuated by occasional floods. This statistical variation means that it requires long periods of record, often far longer than we have here in Australia, to draw valid statistical conclusions about long term trends, especially in flooding.
2. The climate change predictions for southeaster Australia where most people live, and where most of your examples come from, are that the weather will get drier, but the extremes, when they occur, will be more extreme. For rivers, that means lower flows overall, longer droughts but occasionally more severe floods. Thus the present wetter weather is quite within those predictions, and could only be considered contrary to the predictions if many years of data were contrary.
3. Because of this high variability in river flows and the short time we have had to gather data since human-induced global warming became apparent, it is far too soon for a casual observer to draw any sort of valid conclusion. The only way to draw a valid conclusion is to use computer models based on good data and a good understanding of physical processes.
4. The climate change models meet these requirements. They may be in error, but it is increasingly unlikely that they are grossly in error. They may be in error, just as a medical diagnosis of cancer may be wrong, but you wouldn’t bet your life on ignoring a cancer diagnosis, and we shouldn’t bet our planet on ignoring the best science we have.
So may I urge you, please, therefore, to gain a more complete appreciation of the facts before you post on this topic again. Your present understanding is quite wrong, and your post only contributes to ignorance rather than knowledge, to the problem rather than to the solution. Thanks.
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