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California’s 10th Congressional District:
Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi (D) vs.
David Harmer (R)
UPDATE @ end.

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With only four races of national interest in Election 2009, most of the media attention has been focused on the two governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey. Of the two congressional seats up for grabs, New York’s 23rd congressional district race has received the lion’s share of coverage.

But there is another election that will send its victor to Congress: California’s 10th congressional district, which roughly covers the northern part of California’s Bay Area.

IF NY-23 is a referendum of sorts on the policies of the Obama administration, as some have insisted, then isn’t the same hold true for California 10?

While NY-23 runs reddish, it went for Obama in 2008 by 5%. California 10 runs deep blue, with Obama winning by over 30%.

What parts of the Bay Area does the 10th Congressional District encompass?

From California’s 10th congressional district

California’s 10th congressional district is a U.S. House district located in the East Bay region of Northern California. This once compact and politically balanced district received national attention when Democrat Ellen Tauscher defeated incumbent Republican Representative Bill Baker in 1996. In the 2002 redistricting of California, all seats were made safe for the parties of incumbent officeholders. The district boundaries were extended to include parts of Solano County, eastern Contra Costa county, and El Cerrito in western Contra Costa county. Although much of the suburban Tri-Valley region was lost to the 11th district, the city of Livermore remained in the 10th at Tauscher’s request (as a member of the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, she had some oversight responsibilities over the Department of Energy, and hence indirectly of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

The two contestants are Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi (D) and Republican David Harmer. Garmendi is favored in this blue district and leads in the latest poll last week by CBS Channel 5 by 10%. Harmer, an attorney and author, has fought a surprisingly competitive campaign, though.

Over half of the votes in the election have already been cast, according to CBS-5.

American Thinker’s Richard Baehr has some succinct analysis of the California-10 race:

Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher has been appointed Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Tauscher won her last race in this east Bay district by a 34% margin and received 65% or more of the vote in each of her races. Obama won the district by 32% in 2008. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, is leading in late polls by 10% over his GOP opponent, David Harmer. This race has been off the radar, with political attention focused on the other three. It would be an enormous upset if Harmer won, but if Garamendi wins by only 10% in the 10th, that too will represent a significant drop-off from Obama’s margin in 2008 of over 20% in one year.

Harmar’s advocates insist that the polls are within the margin of error. That may be (the CBS-5 poll included a sample of 581 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.1), but it seems somewhat unlikely.

However, this is the season of discontent, and might not polls underestimate this factor?

David Harmer’s partisans can certainly hope so.

At any rate, Baehr’s observation that a 10% win for a sitting Lt. Governor in a blue district represents a loss of the support that Democrats displayed only 12 months ago is valid.

The truth will be known 24 hours from now.

UPDATE @ 2034 EST 110309: Internal polling from the Harmer campaign puts their candidate with the margin of error at -2%. Turnout has been high, so if you’re a Harmer supporter, that’s a good sign.

by Mondo Frazier
image: txt2pic.com

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