Since we agree on Pakistan, I’d like to discuss Iran a bit more.

First of all, the US never pulled support for the Shah, at least not when he was in power. The revolution was a surprise to the west, it was not something they anticipated, although the 40,000 oil strikers in 1978 (on today’s date, as it happens) should have been a clue. More than 10 percent of the population marched against the Shah, unheard of in any past revolutions, including the French and Russian ones. There is no doubt the Shah was forced from power by the Iranians themselves. They had a very powerful and militant student movement as well.

One main things people don’t seem to understand, in the west at least, is why the islamists had such great support. As you hinted, it wasn’t a desire by the masses to become devout muslims (thought some did, of course.) Under direction by the US, during the Shah’s reign, most leftist and nationalist movements were destroyed. Leftists, communists, democrats, and nationalists were all either silenced or eliminated. So, if you were an average Iranian, and you were mad at what the Shah or SAVAK were doing, and wanted to take action, which group could you join? The Islamists were the only organized group left standing. Without the repression of these groups, there likely still would have been a revolution, but it would have more likely been a marxist or nationalist revolution.

Of course, this was not a unique situation. The US had Saddam wipe out most opposition during the 70s and 80s as well. And they supported the Islamists in Afghanistan against the Soviets. I won’t even talk about the death squads in Central and South America.

This is why my main argument is that the best way for Pakistan to gain stability is for them to act in their own interests and ignore what the US wants. Pull a Sweden, and declare neutrality. No more US personnel or supply lines in the country. No more drone attacks. The is what the vast majority of Pakistanis want, and the reason they are pissed off right now.

Some valid points.

Being somewhat of a student of what happened in 1979 in Iran, I would posit that the vacuum created after the US pulled support from the Shah–and also heavily pressured him to step down–was filled by the Islamic militants that still remain in power today. It would seem that they are no more, and perhaps LESS, popular than the Shah was. They used unrest in some of the population to seize power from all.

Democratic demonstrations were a means to control the government and crush those same democratic forces later.

I agree that the Islamic militants will try to do much the same in Pakistan: try to take advantage of unrest created by democratic elements of the population and then hijack the movement, once the central government falls.

Thanks for stopping by, reading and commenting.

http://watching-history.blogspot.com/2009/10/future-of-pakistan.html

This post was mentioned on Twitter by mondoreb: U.S. Covert Operations Buildup in Pakistan Anger Citizens. Is this the beginning of Joe Biden’s War? http://bit.ly/3glkfs…