SCOZZAFAVA’s DROPPING OUT:
WHO DOES IT HELP?

HOFFMENTUM!
Updates at end of article.

Dede Scozzafava is suspending her campaign in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

From BREAKING: Scozzafava suspends NY 23 campaign:

Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. She did not endorse either of her two opponents — Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman or Democrat Bill Owens.

Scozzafava has “probably made her last campaign appearance between now and Election Day,” spokesman Matt Burns told POLITICO. “She’s releasing her support to the two other candidates.”
“I had a discussion with her last night, and we made the decision after I spoke with her. We talked about it, what this came down to was spending. It came down to the ability to defend herself from the get-go. And that’s the reality. She was unable to define herself where the people didn’t know her.”

Who does this benefit?

There has been some speculation that Scozzafava siphoned off liberal votes from Democrat candidate Bill Owens. In this line of thought, keeping Scozzafava in the race benefited Doug Hoffman’s Conservative/Independent bid.

But the last polling data that this writer saw, Scozzafava supporters were 2-1 Republicans. So that would seem to indicate her dropping out would be a big benefit to Hoffman.

Recent days have seen Hoffmentum! taking place with even Tim Pawlenty and cautious members of Congress climbing on board the Hoffman bandwagon–once it got rolling.

HOFFMAN, PALIN BENEFIT FROM SCOZZAFAVA ANNOUNCEMENT

Who ultimately benefits?

Doug Hoffman should be the major beneficiary of Dede Scozzafava’s announcement.

We’d say one big beneficiary would be Sarah Palin, who jumped in to support Hoffman before supporting Hoffman was cool. Her principled stand can be expected to both benefit Palin–and enrage that group of Palin bashers whose main argument seem to be, “I hate that bitch!”.

Losers?

Bill Owens no longer can count on a split Republican/Conservative vote.

The RNC looks foolish. The Republican group lost donors and credibility over the entire episode. They poured money and manpower into the Scozzafava campaign before throwing in the towel these past few days.

Newt Gingrich might be able to continue his repeated, but weak, argument that Hoffman’s candidacy hurt the Republican Party.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee still look like finger-in-the-wind pols (?weasels?).

But, as always, time will tell.

UPDATE @ 1247 103109: Scozzafava’s statement ended with this:
“I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.”

Which seems to be a half-hearted endorsement of Hoffman. But that’s better than an endorsement for the other liberal in the race.

UPDATE @ 1305 103109: Over at Texas4Palin, this on losers:

But from where we sit down here in Texas, which is admittedly far away from NY-23 and the DC Beltway, Newt Gingrich is the biggest loser. His more-elephantine-than-thou remarks dissing Hoffman and Doug’s supporters are on the record. This is a big blow to his GOP Elder Statesman persona.

“More-elephantine-than-thou”.

That’s pretty good. We’ll have to put that one on speed-dial for 2012.

by Mondo Frazier
image: DBKP file