lllinois Earthquakes: The Infamous Dr. Browning’s New Madrid Prediction

“We owe him (Iben Browning) a debt of gratitude,” New Madrid Mayor Dick Phillips said Friday. “I respected the man’s intelligence. In this particular case, thank God, his prediction didn’t come to pass, but it made us realize that we had never made any kind of preparations for a natural disaster. We owe him for that. “ Source – Showme.net

Residents of southeast Illinois were awakened in the early morning hours by a 5.2 magnitude earthquake on April 18 followed by a series of aftershocks, the largest a 4.5 recorded Monday at 12:40 a.m.

According to the USGS, the area were the shocks occurred is located in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone and the Illinois Basin – Ozark Dome Region which covers an area that includes parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Arkansas and Missouri.

Shakemap of Illinois Aftershock, April 21, 2008, 5:28:39 UTC
Source – USGS

Based on geologic evidence there were at least 8 prehistoric earthquakes in the Wabash Valley Zone over the past 20,000 years with estimated magnitudes of 6.5 to 7.5.

Earthquakes east of the Rockies are typically felt over a broader region than in the western United States. Adjacent to Wabash Valley sits the fault line whose past predicts a dire future, the sleeping giant, the New Madrid Fault or New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ).

The New Madrid Fault extends 120 miles from Charleston, Missouri to Mark Tree, Arkansas. It crosses the Mississippi River three times, five state lines, and the Ohio River twice. Every 18 months a quake of 4.0 is registered with the most recent, a 4.6 in 1996.

Modern day Madrid Fault residents sit on an area that has a spectacular earthquake past, of a series of three quakes estimated to be greater than 8.0 in 1811-12 that literally changed the course of the Mississippi River, created Reelfoot Lake in northwestern Tennessee, and rang church bells on the East coast.

It was this knowledge of the previous quakes of 1811-12 that contributed to the reaction of New Madrid residents to the dire predictions of climatologist Iben Browning in 1990. Browning not only warned that the area, which included such large cities as St. Louis and Memphis, had 50/50 chance of being be hit by a large quake of a magnitude of 6.5 to 7.5 with catastrophic consequences, but that he also knew exactly when it would strike, Dec. 3, 1990.

It was in August of 1990 that Browning announced his prediction pertaining to the New Madrid Fault. The climatologist based his findings on studies of tidal patterns, gravity, and the alignment of the planets and moon. His climate studies included predictions in other areas such as world food production.

While some might of reacted with skepticism, especially seismologists, to Browning’s prediction, other chose to heed his advice, such as the town of New Madrid, Missouri. Some stockpiled food while schools were ordered closed on the predetermined date with earthquake infamy. Law enforcement officials and rescue officials set up emergency headquarters and held pre-disaster drills while other residents chose to leave.

After the alloted time came and went with no earthquake, Browning was relegated to crackpot status and soon died of a heart attack at age 73 in Albuquerque. What is rarely mentioned is that Browning was right on the money with two of his prior predictions. He warned a week in advance of the 1998 earthquake in San Francisco and predicted Mt. St. Helens would erupt.

Seismologists estimate there is a 9-in-10 chance of a major quake of a magnitude of 6 to 7 along the New Madrid Fault over the next 50 years while the Central United States Earthquake Consortium cites the work of Indiana University archaeologists, Pat and Cheryl Munson, and U.S. Geological Survey geologist Steve Obermeier that suggest the occurrence of at least six prior quakes in the Wabash Valley during the last 12,000 years whose epicenters were in Indiana, the largest quake centered near Vincennes, estimated to be more powerful than the 1994 Los Angeles – Northridge quake with a magnitude of 6.7.

The CUSEC warns that the presence of large liquefaction features throughout the Lower Wabash Valley “suggests the possibility that the area is capable of producing very large earthquakes”.

While Browning’s predictions failed to come true, the fact remains that the New Madrid Fault does exist and that scientists believe there is a 9/10 chance of another major quake striking the area in the next fifty years. Unlike the period of the 1811-12, the area is now home to millions of residents. The recent quakes in Illinois in the Wabash Valley Zone remind residents that they too are not immune from the unpredictability of living in an earthquake zone.

Browning’s prediction did produce a positive result, a renewal in the interest in the silence menace that resides beneath everyone’s feet, the New Madrid Fault. Because of Browning earthquake awareness and disaster preparedness occurred with many acquiring additional earthquake insurance and learning what to do in case a quake does strike.

Browning suffered because he not only predicted a large earthquake was due to strike the New Madrid Zone but also the date it would hit, something no one has the ability to do. Scientists in the field of earthquake study “play it safe” by giving themselves much wider latitude, such as “in the next 50 years” and a “9-in-10 chance”.

Until scientists have the ability to be able to be more precise as to when and where a quake will strike it’s up the rest of us to be educated as to the type of area we live in, whether or not it has a higher probability for earthquakes and then to make sure we’re armed with the necessary information on how to survive one, both during and after.

By LBG

Image – USGS – Wabash Valley – New Madrid Seismic Zones
Source – Iben Browning, 73; researcher who studied Climate and Quakes
Source – USGS – Uncovering Hidden Hazards in the Mississippi Valley
Source – Yahoo News – Magnitude 4.5 aftershock reported from Midwest earthquake
Source – USGS – Illinois Aftershock
Source – SCCHealth – About the New Madrid Fault

Death by 1000 Papercuts Front Page.

Tags: Dr. Browning, Illinois earthquake, New Madrid Fault, Wabash Valley Seismic Zone