We shall see if Obama’s speech on March 18 had the desired effect. The results won’t be clear for days, at best, but from what I have seen and heard so far, much of the speech itself, plus TV commentary, it was too little, too late.

Gloria Borger expressed the opinion yesterday that for the speech to be effective, Obama had to talk directly to the voters at a real world level and, for a change, not address worshipful devotees, from the stratosphere. There was some earthiness in Obama’s address, but it was pretty much true to form, poetic and rhapsodic and rhetorical. Personally, I could muster some sympathy, but it was not convincing.

What would be convincing?

A black political expert featured on Fox TV may provide the best answer. Sorry I can’t report his name, but he is very astute and realistic, a “pol” who knows his stuff. He also is a Democrat sympathetic to Obama–and he wasn’t convinced, either.

What it would take is for Obama to meet with Rev Wright, behind closed doors , and when the get together was over for Wright to emerge with the message that he , the pastor, regretted his controversial views, had experienced a change of heart, and now seeks to not only undo damages he has caused , but has determined to turn a new leaf and henceforth preach a message that, in effect, reflects the outlook of MLK. And this would need to be done, added a women news anchor, in such a way that it could only be seen as sincere and not cynical opportunism.

What are the chances of this? For the immediate future, slim to none. Apparently the pastor has been located in Africa, and at the least is nowhere to be found. But even if he could be contacted in the next day or two, he has now been so publicly vilified that in all probability he is in no mood for anything but defensiveness.

Down the road may be another matter. And with the Pennsylvania primary still 5 weeks away, Obama has some time, maybe enough time, to “stop the bleeding.” But the more time that elapses, the worse his predicament becomes. His poll numbers have begun to fall and Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania,as of this AM, has increased from 6% to 12%.
Not that we can trust Gallup with our life, and other polls have been less than trustworthy this year, but here is one indication that major damages loom ahead for Obama. Rasmusson is the first tracking poll to show nationwide effects from the “pastorgate” mess, Obama down 5 points in 3 days.

The speech may have the effect to applying a tourniquet to a serious wound, maybe those numbers will stabilize, but clearly the speech was not enough. The best that can be said is that it gave some measure of reassurance to Obama’s most ardent supporters who, because of it, still have a “reason for faith.” The problem concerns his “soft support, ” people who like him and like the idea of voting for him, but who are realists, not “true believers.” How large their numbers are in Obama’s “camp” I cannot say, but surely a substantial part of the ensemble, and maybe a majority. These are the people who could “peel away” in the days and weeks ahead.

The goal of Obama’s strategists, according to Fox reporters , was to “stop the loop.” This refers to almost endless playing and replaying of Wright’s sermons on YouTube and cable TV, mostly Fox but also CNN. But all that may happen is a short pause to reflect on Obama’s speech of Tuesday.

The fact remains that there are numerous DVDs that have not even been aired yet which in all likelihood contain even more intemperate sermon comments ( and more yelling and hatred ), plus the fact that Wright’s sermons are such “good theater.” He really is an effective speaker—its just that his message is little different than that of Louis Farrakhan.

The fact also is, that if Obama has his true believer supporters, there exists another large number of people who do not like Obama , who regard him as pro-Islam and want to see him defeated. And you can count on these folks to continue to do whatever is available for them to do, to contribute to his downfall. Which I should know, since I am in this group.

If the objective was to stop the loop, so to speak, then Obama had to neutralize his fiercest critics. This he did not do. All that he accomplished with me, and doubtless many others would say about the same thing, was to give me some pause, to give him some credit as a politician and as a human being “in a very tough spot,” but that is the full extent of things.

As a “step # 1″ maybe the speech can be viewed positively. But if the speech is the substance of Obama’s effort to deal with Rev Wright and his anti-American tirades and paranoid conspiracy theories presented as facts in a Christian church, then it simply did not do the job. Indeed, if there is nothing further, for all intents and purposes, the effect may be to undermine the confidence of all but his most loyal supporters. If that is all he is willing to say, or do, which obviously is not nearly enough, then the doubters may well say, “oops, he doesn’t have the smarts or the heart to do what is essential for political success -and it is time for me to look elsewhere.”

Probably, because of the speech, there will be some rallying around Obama for the next few days, but if the loop continues, the “game” is over. For that matter, without a drastic and dramatic turnaround by Rev Wright, the game may well be over. anyway. Wright’s sermons have to be regarded as ammunition for his detractors for the Fall, if not for the official Republican Party in its campaign , for dozens of “Swift Boat ” committees with millions of dollars to spend. Not to even count what could well happen in the blogosphere.

The Democratic primary contest may still remain undecided for a while, but Obama’s chances in the general election have been seriously jeopardized. The latest one-on-one polls show Hillary with a lead over McCain, the reverse of a week or 10 days ago, Obama losing to McCain, also the reverse of a week or so ago.

Sorry, Obama, introspective poetry is not the answer when what you needed was something along the lines of a Wright sermon, but in reverse, 180 degrees to opposite effect..Soft soap was not the answer, either, when what was called for was serious washing in a washing machine with powerful detergent.

Obama’s ship has been hit by a broadside of torpedos, that is what happened over the weekend just passed. That is how serious this all is. .Obama doesn’t seem to understand just how horrific this is, and his true believer followers seem to be incapable of comprehending the obvious. But, then, they can’t. For him he is not a candidate for president, he is the messiah.

For the rest of us, our messiah is someone else, such as Jesus Christ.

By: Billy Rojas

[Billy Rojas is a former college teacher of the Social Sciences, History, and Comparative Religion , at Phoenix college, Alice Lloyd College, Lower Columbia College, and the City Colleges of Chicago. He was formerly assigned to the US Navy as an instructor with the USS Enterprise. His previous article, "Obama and Culture Shock" appeared at DBKP on March 2 2008.]
image: DBKP file; democratic underground


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